There are frequently one-off polls that show a much wider gap. The FiveThirtyEight database also shows a matchup that is essentially tied. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump up over Biden by 1.1 points. We talked to a lot of political professionals this morning, and if you step back from the methodological wars that this poll has inflamed on Twitter, it’s worth considering a few things specifically about this debate and more generally about 2024 and polls: Nonetheless, those sentiments are real, have been consistently negative in recent surveys, and clearly mark Biden’s challenges ahead.” Since many results are negative toward Biden, it follows that he’s lagging in 2024 support. That’s because these questions are more germane than candidate support in an election so far off. As is customary for ABC/Post polls at this still-early stage of an election cycle, this survey asked first about Biden and Trump’s performance, economic sentiment and a handful of other issues (Ukraine aid, abortion and a government shutdown) before candidate preferences. Trump, meanwhile, has used his criminal indictments to bolster his base through claims of political persecution and enjoys positive coverage of his GOP frontrunner status. All have been the subject of extensive recent news coverage, focusing public discourse on negatives for the president. Biden’s poor performance ratings, the extent of economic discontent, the immigration crisis and doubts about his age clearly are relevant. JASON MILLER of the Trump campaign mocked the paper, tweeting, “The Post shits all over their own poll throughout the article.”ĪBC got even deeper into the polling weeds trying to explain its curious results: The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.” The Post took the unusual step of adding a major caveat about their own results in the third graf of the write-up: “The … sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. (To make things more confusing, the Post emphasizes the head-to-head matchup using registered voters, which was Biden 42, Trump 52, in this poll, while ABC’s headline uses the larger group of all adults, which was 42-51.) Trump world is naturally ecstatic about this latter result, and both the Post and ABC are spending a lot of energy trying to explain it. But what’s roiling the political conversation this morning are the starkly different results in the head-to-head general-election matchups. And here’s NBC on Biden : “hat also stands out in the poll are the warning signs for Biden beyond his age - including an all-time high disapproval of his job performance, fewer than 4 in 10 voters approving of his handling of the economy and lagging interest in the election among key parts of the Democratic base.”īoth polls also show Trump crushing all competitors in the Republican primary. Seventy-four percent of voters say Biden is too old for a second term. The approval numbers on two big issues are dismal: 30% on the economy and 23% on immigration. A record number of Americans say they’ve become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he’s too old for another term and DONALD TRUMP is looking better in retrospect - all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead.” On Biden’s weaknesses, per ABC’s write-up of its poll: “Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. | Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Congressional Black Caucus Annual Legislative Conference DRIVING THE DAYīEGUN THE POLLING WARS HAVE - There are two new national polls out - one from NBC, the other from ABC/WaPo - and while they tell a similar story about President JOE BIDEN’s weaknesses, they have very different toplines about a potential general-election matchup. President Joe Biden continues to struggle in the polls.
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